我們對中國崛起的看法

張貼日：94-12-27
發布單位：外交部

近來國際社會廣泛討論中國崛起的問題，各方關注焦點在於如何看待中國經濟與軍事力量的上升、如何評估中國未來動向以及如何因應崛起中的中國。中華民國（台灣）的立場和國際社會相同，都期待中國成為一個遵守國際規範、尊重民主人權、愛好和平的國家，但從中國的實際作為以及中國政權的本質來看，中國距離上述目標仍然非常遙遠。長期以來台灣與中國之間具有獨特的互動關係，卻受到中國直接而真實的威脅，台灣願與國際社會分享台灣觀點，並共同努力促使中國朝和平、民主的方向前進。一、看待中國發展的全貌　　各國對中國近年來的發展依樂觀論或悲觀論而有不同看法，我們則認為應該以務實、理性、審慎的態度，觀察中國發展全貌，方能據以思考如何因應中國崛起帶來的機會與威脅。
	1.	經濟發展快速但不健全：中國自推動改革開放以來，雖然已經成為世界上第三大貿易國，第六大經濟體，但中國經濟仍存在下列三大問題：
		(1)	市場經濟制度不完整：中國的市場經濟地位目前仍未獲得美、日、歐盟等多數已開發國家承認，其經濟自由度在155個評比的經濟體中僅排名第112，屬於大部分不自由的一類。
		(2)	政府貪污腐化嚴重：缺乏民主監督機制的一黨支配制度造成中國各級政府廣泛的貪污腐敗，根據「國際透明組織」2005年調查報告，中國政府清廉程度在159個國家中排名第78名。
		(3)	經濟環境缺乏安定性：中國存在嚴重的「三差問題」（城鄉差距、貧富差距、東西差距），根據中國官方報告，從1993年到2003年，中國大陸群眾抗爭事件數量由每年1萬起增加到6萬起，參與人數也由70萬增加到300萬。2004年中國大陸就出現74,000多起抗爭事件，參與各種示威和抗議活動者僅農民即多達300萬人。根據「世界經濟論壇」調查，其2005年成長競爭力在117個經濟體中排名第49【台灣排名第5】。
	2.	軍力迅速提升卻不透明：中國在沒有任何外國威脅的情況下，每年以超越經濟成長率的兩位數幅度增加國防支出，2005年實際國防預算估計高達900億美元，高居世界第三位，亞洲第一位，是2000年的二倍，1997年的三倍。2001年到2004年間，中國簽署的傳統軍購協議金額高居世界第一位，是1997年到2000年軍購金額的二倍多。但因中國從未公布其國家安全戰略報告，其軍事現代化的目的與方向極度缺乏透明性，一向受到周邊民主國家的關切。
	3.	僅有的樣板民主也只存在於農村地區：中國經濟、軍事崛起的同時，在民主自由方面卻無相應發展。
			政治制度：大陸仍然實施一黨專政制度，不容許多黨競爭。所謂「民主選舉」，不但僅限於農村，不及於縣、省及中央政府，且實質上幾乎均受到共產黨控制。公民權利：1998年10月5日中國簽署了「公民與政治權利國際公約」，但遲至今天仍未完成批准程序，遑論具體履行其條約義務。根據美國自由之家公佈的「2005年世界自由」報告，在192個受調查國家中，中國是49個不自由國家之一。新聞自由：「無疆界記者」組織公布的「2005年全球新聞自由指數」也指出，中國的新聞自由度在全世界167個國家中排名第159。宗教自由：中國繼續鎮壓西藏佛教徒、新疆回教徒、親梵蒂岡的天主教徒、地下教會新教徒以及法輪功成員，是全世界8個被列為「特別關切國家」之一。
	4.	非理性民族主義情緒高漲：1989年之後，中國政府即不斷提倡所謂「愛國主義教育」，目的在於轉移人民對中國政府的不滿以及掩飾共產主義意識型態的崩潰。但「愛國主義教育」是由政府及共產黨發動，新聞媒體、網際網路及文教機構則由政府嚴密掌控，因而言論自由以及意見的傳播交流仍受到嚴密檢查及法律箝制。
			1999年5月中國大陸爆發民眾暴力抗議北約誤炸其駐南斯拉夫大使館事件。 2001年4月大陸民眾為中美軍機擦撞案包圍及毀損美國駐北京大使館。 2004年4月中國官方企圖重新界定高句麗歷史。 2004年8月亞洲盃中日足球賽在北京舉行期間中國大陸民眾出現非理性反日騷動。 2005年4月中國大陸各大城市發生大規模反日暴力示威遊行。
		這些示威活動證明民族主義情緒的高漲以及所謂「愛國主義教育」本質上就是鼓動民族主義情緒的代名詞。
二、中國對亞太地區的威脅

	1.	對東亞和平安全的威脅：中國始終不承諾放棄對台動武立場，1996年中國針對台灣南北兩大港口試射飛彈，其後連年進行針對性兩棲軍事演習。近年來中國已對台部署650枚到730枚飛彈，並以每年100枚的速度增加。今年3月14日中國更通過具有戰爭授權法性質的「反分裂國家法」，不但公然將對台動武法制化，更片面界定對台動武的條件與時機。　　台灣位於西太平洋交通樞紐，是從麻六甲海峽到東北亞的必經航道，每年飛越台北飛航情報區的各國民航機高達30~40萬架次以上，航經台灣海峽的船隻也多達20萬艘。中國在台海增加軍事部署，不但升高台海緊張情勢，更影響周邊民主國家維護台海和平的共同利益。　　中國提升軍力的速度和範圍如發展遠洋海軍、核子及飛彈武力，並將軍事活動延伸到第二島鍊，已經危及區域軍力平衡。當前中國軍事現代化的趨勢，提供其得以在台灣之外的亞洲進行軍事行動的武力，對區域內活動的各國現代軍力帶來潛在而可信的威脅。
	2.	對東亞民主發展的威脅：五十幾年來台灣人民經由和平漸進的「寧靜革命」，一步步實現民主自由的理念，同時又能夠維持國家安定、經濟成長及社會穩定。但台灣並未因此而自滿，不但繼續努力深化民主自由的根基，更以其民主經驗積極參與國際民主合作。因此，台灣的民主發展被譽為一個成功故事，證明亞洲價值與民主自由理念可以相容併存。　　二次世界大戰以來，從日本到東帝汶，一系列民主力量的擴張，奠定東亞和平與繁榮的基礎，台灣的民主發展是這個民主擴張進程中非常重要的一環。但東亞有自由開放的民主國家，也有極權及獨裁統治國家。冷戰時代，民主自由國家為了防止共產主義擴張而採取圍堵政策；今天台海的情形正好相反，極權中國為了阻止民主主義的擴張，全面否定台灣人民「和平發展、自由選擇」的權利。因此，台灣的處境不是兩岸之間的問題，更不是中國所謂的「內政問題」，而應該被視亞洲民主陣線前進或後退的問題。在民主國家致力向亞洲大陸擴張民主力量之際，中國對民主台灣的軍事威脅正面挑戰了以民主為基礎的東亞價值同盟關係。
	3.	對東亞經濟發展的威脅：台海是東亞各國能源及貿易運輸的主要通道，台灣則是全世界第十五大貿易國，也是全球資訊工業重鎮，今年5月的「商業週刊」亞洲版就以「台灣為什麼重要？沒有它全球經濟就不能運作」為題，專題報導台灣的資訊科技力量。所以，台灣安全受到威脅，東亞的經濟發展也會受到重創。　　二次世界大戰之後，東亞地區曾經先後發生韓戰、金門炮戰、越戰以及中越戰爭，在這種痛苦不安的環境下，東亞經濟在日本帶頭，台灣、南韓、香港及新加坡等四小龍跟進下起飛，其後再擴及東協各國及中國大陸，使東亞地區成為引領世界經濟發展的發動機。　　今天東亞地區仍然存在北韓核擴散問題、東海及南海領土爭議等潛在爆炸點，為謀求東亞經濟的持續發展，這些議題原應由國際社會共同以和平方式解決，但中國急速提升軍力的行為，不但與東亞需要安定的潮流背道而馳，更危及台灣、東亞甚至全球經濟發展所需要的穩定環境。
三、中國崛起的潛在風險
		中國是否將成為國際社會中負責任的成員，我們可以從下列四項指標加以評估：
	1.	缺乏民主自由制度的隱憂：中國建政以來就不是一個愛好和平的國家，除了1958年對台海的金門發動軍事攻擊外，還曾參加韓戰、支援越戰、並與蘇聯、印度及越南發生軍事衝突。二次大戰前納粹主義、法西斯主義及軍國主義的崛起，以及二次大戰後蘇聯共產主義的崛起，其共同特徵都是大肆提高軍力，同時又抑制民主自由制度的發展。從歷史經驗來看，中國在缺乏民主崛起的背景下大肆擴張軍力，當然更值得國際憂慮。
	2.	內部權力鬥爭的隱憂：自2003 年11月起，中國共產黨官員首度使用「和平崛起」形容中國，其後中國政府高層官員也曾多次引用，但因中國內部強硬派對「和平崛起」一詞出現歧見，自2004年年中之後，中國官方即悄悄收回。國際間原寄望中國第四代領導人胡錦濤上台後，將成為帶動中國改革開放的溫和派，但今天中國政府依然緊緊箝制傳播及通訊，並無民主化跡象；加上中國軍方人士如熊光楷、朱成虎等人動用核武威脅的言論，國際間仍然不能不對中國政權在內部權力鬥爭下採取侵略性行為的可能性保持高度警戒。
	3.	擴張性外交政策的隱憂：中國是一個仍然接受國際官方發展援助的國家，其年平均國民所得僅約1,290美元，全國約有1億5,000萬人口生活在每日一美元的貧窮線之下。自1979年以來中國接受日本官方發展援助將近3.5兆日圓，單以2001年到2003年為例，中國就接受已開發國家近43億美元官方發展援助。雖然如此，中國仍在2002年底減免31個非洲國家共105億人民幣債務，本年9月又宣稱將減免其友邦應償還之貸款。同時，儘管許多中國人民收入微薄，但中國仍不惜以大量金援承諾破壞台灣的邦交關係。中國的外交作為顯然旨在擴張全球勢力範圍，強化國際支配地位，與其「建設小康社會」的說法背道而馳。
	4.	破壞國際規範與秩序的隱憂：中國除了未能遵守國際民主自由的普世價值之外，也在國際間支持人權紀錄欠佳的國家，飽受各方批評。此外，中國經常違反國際間防止武器擴散規範，輸出飛彈及核技術，並多次遭受其他國家指責。雖然中國和其周邊國家的領土爭議逐漸獲得解決，但中國與日本及南海各國之間仍有潛在的領土爭議以及能源開發衝突。近年來，中國為了競逐能源及礦產更加接近中東、非洲及拉丁美洲具有國際爭議的國家或地區，不但影響國際社會維持區域和平穩定的努力，其與主要國家之間為了能源競爭而產生的緊張關係，也成為衝擊國際秩序的不穩定因素。
	5.	擾亂各國經濟發展的隱憂：中國以大量廉價勞力以及低於國際環保與勞工標準為基礎的產業活動，是一種新型態的掠奪式經濟，已經在許多國家造成產業萎縮。自1995年世界貿易組織成立以來，中國連續九年成為世界上遭受反傾銷調查最多的國家，單是2004年就有68件反傾銷調查針對中國大陸產品。以紡織品為例，2005年初世界貿易組織取消配額後，中國紡織品出口已造成歐洲、非洲及美洲許多國家成衣工廠關閉及大量勞工失業。此外，中國大陸的非法移民也為各國帶來嚴重的社會問題。
	6.	衝擊國際經濟穩定的隱憂：中國是全球第一大粗鋼生產國及鐵礦砂進口國、全球第二大原油需求國及第三大進口國、全球煤炭、鋁、水泥的第一大生產國及消費國。中國在國際間大肆競爭能源及礦產已造成國際原物料價格的上漲，並對其他經濟力量弱小的消費國帶來重大壓力。一旦國際價格因中國經濟成長趨緩、需求下降而波動，也將損害能源及礦產供應國的經濟穩定。
四、國際社會如何面對中國崛起
		面對中國現存以及潛在的威脅，國際社會應該採取下列各項作為，以確保中國在世界民主、繁榮、和平的發展上，真正成為一個建設性的利害關係者。
	1.	堅定原則的交往：一般認為各國與中國加強經貿關係，有助於促進中國的經濟發展，而經濟發展也將帶動中國大陸的民主發展。但這項三段論必須滿足三項前提才可能發揮效果：第一、各國與中國的交往不能以犧牲民主、人權原則為條件，否則只會延緩而不是促進中國的民主化。第二、各國與中國的交往不能犧牲包括台灣在內周邊民主國家的共同利益。第三、東亞區域外國家不應漠視中國對東亞區域安全的威脅，更不應該以對中國軍售或軍事合作方式，惡化東亞安全環境。
	2.	共同維護台海安全：各國接受中國視台灣為其內政問題的主張，只會壯大中國對台動武的野心，反而加深台海及東亞區域安全的危險。為避免這項危險發生，國際社會應該推動下列三項作法：第一、由聯合國派遣特使或真相調查團評估台海安全情勢，並定期向聯合國提出報告。第二、國際間應該支持台灣參與官方或二軌的區域安全對話，協助推動建立兩岸信心建立措施。第三、透過多邊或雙邊管道，堅決主張台海議題和平解決的立場，明確反對中國對台動武。
	3.	支持台灣民主及國際參與：中國崛起必須建立在「和平覺醒」與「民主開展」之上，才能確保崛起的中國成為國際社會的正面因素。台灣在這個過程中具有關鍵性地位，因為台灣不但是阻止中國軍事冒進的一艘永不沈沒的航空母艦，更是指引中國大陸走向民主化的燈塔。國際社會應該協助建立一個支持「台灣民主」與「兩岸和平」的台海權力新平衡關係，具體作法包括：第一、將台灣納入國際組織及國際合作的網絡，讓兩岸在國際架構下建立對話合作的互信。第二、民主國家應該和台灣建立「價值同盟關係」，並讓台灣成為「民主社群」的重要成員，以民主力量反制中國的軍事威脅。
	4.	合作促進中國轉型：為確保中國成為國際社會中負責任、守規範的一員，國際社會應共同合作促進中國轉型成為一個實行民主、保障自由、尊重人權、力行法治以及愛好和平的國家。相對於中國，台灣是政治、經濟發展的成功故事；相對於世界各國與中國關係，台灣則具有地理、文化及語言接近的優勢。因此，國際社會應充分運用台灣的成就及經驗，讓台灣加入促進中國轉型的價值同盟中。


【英文版】 Our Position on China's Rise Ministry of Foreign Affairs Republic of China (Taiwan) December 2005 The issue of China's rise is widely discussed in the international community. Many observers focus on how to view China's increasing economic and military capabilities, how to assess China's future direction and how to respond to an emerging China. The Republic of China (Taiwan) shares the international community's hope that China emerges as a peace-loving country that abides by international norms and respects human rights and democracy. However, judging from China's present conduct and the nature of its current government, that nation still has a long way to go. For many years now, Taiwan has had a particularly close and stressful relationship with China, subject to real and direct threats from that country. As a result of this experience, Taiwan is eager to share its views with the international community and make efforts to encourage China to move forward in the direction of peace and democracy.
	I.	A Comprehensive View of the Picture of China's Development
		Various countries have different views, based on optimistic and pessimistic theories, about China's rapid development in recent years. Taiwan believes that a pragmatic, rational and cautious mindset should be maintained when observing the overall picture of China's development and searching for ways to respond to the opportunities and threats that China's emergence entails.
		1.	Rapid but unhealthy economic development: Since promoting its "opening up to the outside world" policy, China has become the third largest trading nation and the sixth largest economy in the world. However, China's economy still faces the following three issues.
			(1)	Its market economy system is incomplete. China's market economy has yet to receive recognition from most developed nations, such as the United States, Japan and the European Union. In terms of economic freedom, it is ranked only 112th among 155 economies, in the category of "generally not free."
			(2)	There are serious issues of government corruption. Without the mechanism of democratic supervision, China's one-party system is susceptible to rampant corruption at all levels of government. According to a survey conducted by the International Transparency Organization, the Chinese government ranks only 78th in the world in terms of government integrity.
			(3)	Its economic environment lacks stability. China faces three "gaps": the development gap between urban and rural areas; the gap between rich and poor; and the gap between east and west. According to an official Chinese report, from 1993 to 2003 the annual number of mass demonstrations in China increased from 10,000 to 60,000. The number of participants also increased from 700,000 to 3 million. In 2004, there were more than 74,000 demonstrations and protests in China. The number of farmers participating in these events reached 3 million. According to a survey conducted by the World Economic Forum, China's growth competitiveness was ranked 49th out of 117 economies in 2005, while Taiwan was ranked 5th.
		2.	China's rapid but non-transparent military build-up: Despite not being threatened by any foreign power, China has been increasing its annual defense expenditures at a double-digit rate, exceeding its economic growth rate. It is estimated that the real defense budget of China is as high as US$90 billion in 2005, ranking third in the world and the highest in Asia. This is double the 2000 figure, and triple that of 1997. From 2001 to 2004, the value of conventional arms transfer agreements signed by China was the largest in the world, more than double the amount spent from 1997 to 2000. But China has never made its national security strategy report public. The purpose and direction of its military modernization are lacking in transparency and are thus of concern for democratic countries around its borders.
		3.	Window-dressing democracy limited to rural areas: As China's economic and military strength have been built up, its political institutions have not experienced the same degree of development.
			Political system: China is still ruled by a single political party, and competition between parties is prohibited. Its so-called "democratic elections" are not only limited to rural villages, but are also mostly controlled by the Communist Party. Such elections are not held for county magistrates, provincial officials, or for the central government. Civil rights: On October 5, 1998, China signed the International Convention on Civilian and Political Rights. Yet it has not completed the ratification procedures, not to mention implementing the obligations stipulated in the Convention. According to World Freedom 2005 published by Freedom House, China is one of the 49 "not free" countries of the 192 countries in the world. Press freedom: China ranks 159th among 167 countries in the Worldwide Press Freedom Index 2005 published by the Reporters Without Borders. Religious freedom: China continues to repress Buddhists in Tibet, Muslims in Western Xinjiang, Catholics supportive of the Vatican, Protestants who are members of underground churches and members of the Fa Lun Gong. It is listed as one of the eight countries that is a cause for "special concern" around the world.
		4.	Rising irrational nationalist sentiment: Since 1989, the Chinese government has constantly been promoting so-called "patriotic education." This policy aims to shift people's dissatisfaction away from the Chinese government while covering up the fact that communist ideology is in demise. However, "patriotic education" was initiated by the government and the Communist Party; the news media, Internet, and cultural and educational institutions in China are all closely monitored and controlled by the government. As a result, freedom of expression and communication is severely restricted due to strict censorship and statutory restrictions.
			In May 1999, Chinese people violently protested against NATO's accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Yugoslavia. In April 2001, Chinese people surrounded and damaged the American Embassy in Beijing following the mid-air collision incident involving a US military surveillance plane and a Chinese jet fighter. In April 2004, the Chinese authorities attempted to re-interpret ancient Korean history. In August 2004, when the Chinese soccer team competed against the Japanese team for the Asian Cup in Beijing, irrational anti-Japanese riots broke out in the country. In April 2005, major cities in China saw large-scale and violent anti-Japanese demonstrations.
			These demonstrations are all evidence of rising nationalist sentiment within the country. It proves that the so-called "patriotic education" in essence is synonymous with the instigation of nationalist sentiment.
	II.	China's Threat to the Asia-Pacific Region
		China's threats are not figurative; rather, they are matters of fact in the Asia-Pacific Region. They should be closely watched by all countries around the world.
		1.	A threat to East Asia's peace and security: China has refused to renounce the use of force against Taiwan. In 1996, China test-launched missiles targeting the two largest harbors in Taiwan. In the following years, it conducted target-specific amphibious military exercises. In recent years, the number of Chinese missiles targeted at Taiwan has increased from 650 to 730, with 100 more being added each year. On March 14 this year, China passed the so-called "Anti-secession Law," which openly provides a legal basis for use of force against Taiwan, and unilaterally defines the conditions and timing of such an eventuality. Taiwan serves as a traffic hub in the Western Pacific. All transportation routes connecting the Strait of Malacca and Northeast Asia pass through Taiwan's neighboring waters. As many as 300,000 to 400,000 civilian flights pass through the Taipei Flight Information Region each year, and more than 200,000 vessels sail through the Taiwan Strait annually. China's expansion of its military deployment in the Taiwan Strait will not only escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait but also influence neighboring democracies in their efforts to safeguard the common interests of peace in the Taiwan Strait. The pace and scope of China's military build-up, specifically the development of blue-water navy and nuclear and missile capability, and the extension of its military activities to the second island chain, have put the regional military balance at risk. Current trends in China's military modernization could provide China with a force capable of executing a range of military operations in Asia—well beyond Taiwan—potentially posing a credible threat to the defensive military operation of countries in the region.
		2.	A threat to democratic development in the East Asia region: Over the past five decades, the people of Taiwan have realized the ideals of democracy and freedom with peaceful and gradual "quiet reform" -- maintaining national security as well as economic growth and social stability at the same time. However, Taiwan is not content. It continues to make efforts to deepen the foundation of democracy and freedom, and also actively participate in international cooperation in enhancing democracy, based on its own experience. Therefore, Taiwan's democratic development has been acclaimed as a success story, one which proves that Asian values can coexist with democratic and liberal beliefs. Since the end of the Second World War, democracy has spread from Japan to East Timor, laying a solid foundation for peace and prosperity in East Asia. Taiwan is an important part of this democratic development. There are free and open democratic countries in East Asia, but also totalitarian and dictatorial regimes. During the Cold War era, liberal democratic countries strove to prevent forceful expansion of communism on the Asian continent by adopting a containment policy. It is just the opposite case in the Taiwan Strait. In order to stop the expansion of democracy, totalitarian China denies the rights of the people of Taiwan to have "peaceful development and free choice." Therefore, Taiwan's situation is not the issue between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, nor is it an issue involving China's so-called "internal affairs." Rather, the issue is whether Asia's democratic front is moving forward or backward. While democratic countries strive to expand the influence of democracy on the Asian continent, China's military threats toward democratic Taiwan challenge the East Asian alliance of core values based on democracy.
		3.	A threat to the stability of the East Asian economy: The Taiwan Strait serves as a major gateway through which countries in Northeast Asia import energy and conduct trade. Taiwan is the world's 15th largest trading nation and has one of the most important IT industries in the world. Business Week Asian Edition published in May this year a special report on Taiwan's IT prowess, entitled "Why Taiwan Matters -- The global economy could not function without it." Therefore, if Taiwan's security is threatened, East Asia's – and indeed the world's -- economic development will be adversely affected. Since WWII, East Asia has encountered the scourges of the Korean War, the Kinmen Artillery War, the Vietnam War and the Sino-Vietnamese War. Despite these adverse circumstances, East Asia's economy took off during these decades. The take-off was led by Japan, and soon followed by Asia's four little dragons of Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and Singapore. Economic prosperity gradually expanded to the ASEAN countries and mainland China. East Asia has thus become a locomotive in leading global economic development. In East Asia today there still exist the issues of nuclear proliferation in North Korea and territorial disputes in the East China Sea and South China Sea. In order to safeguard East Asia's sustainable economic development, these issues should be handled by the international community through peaceful means. China's rapid military deployments not only run counter to the trend of stability in the region, but also undermine the stable environment needed for the development of Taiwan, the economy of East Asia, and indeed even the global economy.
	III.	Potential Risks Associated with China's Emergence
		In order to determine whether China will become a responsible member of the international community, we can refer to the four indices listed below:
		1.	The lurking danger of a lack of a democratic and free system: Since the Chinese Communist Party established its regime, China has never been a peace-loving nation. In addition to launching military attacks against Kinmen (Quemoy) in 1958, China also participated in the Korean War and was involved in the Vietnam War. China has also had military conflicts with the Soviet Union, India and Vietnam. The emergence of Nazism, fascism and militarism before the Second World War and the emergence of Soviet communism after the Second World War all shared a common feature: the relevant countries all sought to boost their military force while restraining the development of democratic institutions. With these historical reminders, China's simultaneous military build-up and lack of democratic development should stir the international community to greater concern.
		2.	The lurking danger of a power struggle in the inner circle: Since officials in China's Communist Party first used the phrase "peaceful rise" to describe China in November 2003, many high-ranking officials have used the same phrase on many occasions. However, as different opinions have arisen concerning the interpretation of "peaceful rise," the phrase was quietly withdrawn by Chinese authorities in mid-2004. The international community initially expected that once Hu Jin-tao, China's fourth-generation leader, took office he would adopt a softer approach of reform and opening-up to the world. However, today's Chinese government still tightly controls the mass media and communications without any signs of democratization. Judging by China's military readiness and the nuclear threats issued by military personnel such as Xiong Guangkai and Zhu Chenghu, the international community should still be highly alert to the possibility of China's use of force as a result of China's power struggle in its inner circles.
		3.	The lurking danger of an aggressive foreign policy: China is still a recipient of international official development assistance (ODA). The per capita income of China is merely US$1,290, and about 150 million of its people still live below the poverty line of US$1 per day. China has received nearly 3.5 trillion in ODA from Japan since 1979. Take 2001-2003 for example: China received almost US$4.3 billion ODA from developed countries in that period. However, China still exempted RMB10.5 billion in debts that it lent to 31 African countries in 2002. China also claimed in September this year that it will write off the overdue governmental loans owed by Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) having diplomatic relations with China. At the same time, despite the fact that many of its people earn only a subsistence income, China has sabotaged the diplomatic relations enjoyed between Taiwan and its allies by promising its own financial aid packages to those countries. Although China has constantly claimed to be seeking to establish a "well-off society," its behavior on the diplomatic front is obviously aimed at expanding the scope of its global influence and strengthening its position of international dominance, in contradiction to its claims.
		4.	The lurking danger of sabotage to order and norms in the international community: In addition to not abiding by the universal values of democracy and freedom, China has supported countries with bad human rights records. Moreover, it has violated international norms of anti-proliferation, exported missiles and nuclear technologies, and has thus been criticized repeatedly by other countries. Although territorial disputes between China and its neighbors have gradually been resolved, there remain potential disputes over territory and conflicts concerning energy and resource exploration between China, Japan and the countries of the South China Sea. In recent years, in order to compete for energy and mineral reserves, China has reached out to some controversial countries and regions in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America. These moves have not only adversely influenced international efforts to maintain regional peace and stability, but also increased tension brought about by competition for energy between China and the major powers, thus creating greater instability in international order.
		5.	The lurking danger of obstructing the economic development of other countries: Founded on its massive cheap labor force and substandard environmental protection and labor conditions, China's industrial activities have created a new type of exploitive economy which has caused the shrinkage of industries in many other countries. Since the establishment of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995, China has been the country targeted with most anti-dumping investigations for nine consecutive years. In 2004 alone, 68 anti-dumping investigations focused on China. Taking textiles for example, after the WTO eliminated its textiles and clothing quota in early 2005, China's textile exports have caused the closure of clothing factories and subsequent high unemployment in many countries in Europe, Africa and the Americas. Moreover, China's illegal immigrants have brought about serious social problems in many countries.
		6.	The lurking danger of a negative influence on international economic stability: China is the world's largest importer of raw steel and iron ore, the second largest consuming country and third largest importer of crude oil, and the largest producing and consuming country of coal, aluminium and cement. China's vigorous competition for energy and mineral reserves on the global stage have caused rising raw material prices around the world, thus creating tremendous pressure for other consuming countries that have weaker economic strength. Once China's economic development slows down, international prices will fluctuate due to descending demands; hence economic stability in energy and mineral producing countries will be affected.
	IV.	How Should the International Community Handle China's Rise?
		Facing current and potential threats from China, the international community should adopt the following measures to ensure that China will become a constructive stakeholder in developing democracy, prosperity and peace in the world.
		1.	Engagement with firm principles: It is believed that the strengthening of economic and trade ties between China and countries around the globe will be conducive to facilitating China's economic development, and that such economic development will therefore bring about China's democratic development. However, this syllogism will never be effective unless three prerequisites are fulfilled. First of all, countries around the world should not compromise their stance on the principles of democracy and human rights when interacting with China, as this will serve only to delay rather than promote China's democratization. Secondly, they should not sacrifice the common interests of democracies neighboring China, including Taiwan, when engaging with China. Thirdly, countries outside East Asia should not ignore the threats to regional security posed by China and should not further compromise security in East Asia by expanding arms sales to or military cooperation with China.
		2.	Jointly maintaining security in the Taiwan Strait: Accepting China's stand that the Taiwan issue is an internal affair will only encourage Chinese ambitions to attack Taiwan and further endanger the security of the Taiwan Strait and East Asia. To avoid this occurrence, the international community should promote the following three measures: First of all, the United Nations (UN) should dispatch a special envoy or fact-finding mission to evaluate the security situation in the Taiwan Strait and report back to the UN on a regular basis. Secondly, the international community should support Taiwan's participation in official or second-track security dialogue in the region, and assist in promoting the establishment of confidence-building measures between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. Thirdly, through multilateral and bilateral channels, the international community should firmly advocate its stance on the peaceful resolution of the Taiwan Strait issue, and clearly oppose China's use of force against Taiwan.
		3.	Support Taiwan's democracy and international participation: China's emergence must be backed on the basis of "peaceful awareness" and "democratic promotion" so that a rising China can be ensured to serve as a positive factor in the international community. In this process, Taiwan plays a key role. Taiwan is not only an unsinkable aircraft carrier that can prevent China's rash military actions, but also a lighthouse guiding China to democratization. The international community should help establish a new balance of power in the Taiwan Strait that supports "Taiwan's democracy" and "cross-Strait peace." Concrete measures should include: Firstly, including Taiwan in the network of international organizations and cooperation, so that the two sides of the Strait can establish mutual trust for dialogue and cooperation under the international framework; and secondly, democracies around the world should set up an "alliance of shared values" with Taiwan, and invite Taiwan to become a significant member in the "Community of Democracies" so as to use the strength of democracy to counter military threats posed by China.
		4.	Cooperating to facilitate China's transition: In order to ensure that China will be a responsible and well-behaved member in the international community, countries around the world should cooperate with one another in jointly facilitating China's transition into a country that implements democracy, protects freedom, respects human rights, adopts the rule of law and loves peace. In contrast to China, Taiwan is a success story of political and economic development. Taiwan has certain strong advantages in dealing with China, as compared to many other countries, including language, culture and geographical connections. As a consequence, the international community should take full advantage of Taiwan's accomplishments and experiences and incorporate Taiwan into the alliance of shared values in facilitating China's transition.

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