| Subjects: |
- Poll; National Security Surcharge; Mainland China’s arrest of Taiwan businessmen.
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MAC Vice Chairman Wu An-chia
at the May 12, 2000 Press Conference
His Report:
1. A recent poll conducted under the aegis of MAC showed that 27.2% of those surveyed believe that cross-strait relations will become "more relaxed." Another 26.4% say there will be "no change," and 21.3% feel relations will become "more intense." Compared with the results of the last poll (in February 2000), those who said relations will become "more relaxed" increased by 5.2 percentage points, and those saying "more intense" dropped by 5.1 percentage points.
In order to understand the people’s views on cross-strait relations, MAC did a survey for the fourth time this year, which was conducted by the Election Research Center of National Chengchi University. The results show that on the unification-or-independence issue, those in favor of a broadly defined status quo still constitute the majority (82.1%). The percentage was not much different from previous results.
Asked to comment on the statement that "an equal footing for the two sides must be first secured in order to help the government to have talks with the Mainland," 61% of those surveyed agreed. And 74.7% agreed that if the two sides can have talks on an equal footing they would support the government embarking on political talks. However, 55.8% of the people did not consider that the PRC was sincere in wanting to have political talks with Taiwan.
Asked to comment on direct transportation between the two sides, those in favor of conditional liberalization (75.1%) far outnumbered those who preferred unconditional liberalization (10.1%). Also, 74.3% said they did not support the PRC’s use of "one country, two systems" for cross-strait relations. Though Beijing recently said that if Taiwan accepted "one country, two systems," Taiwan could enjoy better treatment than Hong Kong and Macao, 70.7% of the respondents considered this unacceptable.
This poll was conducted by telephone interview among adults aged 20 to 69 in Taiwan from April 21 to 23, with a valid sample of 1,085.
Questions and Answers:
Q. Regarding the statement by (vice-governor-designate of the Central Bank of China) Chen Shih-meng that if the three direct links were liberalized, the government will consider levying a "national security surcharge," do you consider this feasible?
A. The three direct links can be put into practice only after concerned government agencies devise feasible plans, negotiate with the Mainland side, and sign a detailed agreement on this.
Q, MAC’s poll today was conducted after the presidential election. Those who consider cross-strait relations to be "more relaxed" increased by 5.2 percentage points compared to the previous poll. Why is that?
A. A report on the poll results has yet to be finalized. The change in public opinion probably can be attributed to two aspects. First, people want to express a high-degree of sincerity and good will to Mainland China, wishing for improved relations. Second, people believe (President-elect) Chen Shui-bian can release related information for easing cross-strait relations.
Q. Newspapers have reported that about 40 Taiwan businessmen in Gunagzhou were arrested on charges of tax evasion. Has MAC proceeded to investigate the incident?
A. We urge Taiwan businessmen in Mainland China to do decent job. Second, we want to urge Mainland Chinese officials not to go too far in cracking down on tax evasion. Third, we hope Mainland China can establish a reasonable factory regulatory regime to prevent good businessmen from acting in gray areas, and from thus facing unfair or unreasonable treatment. Mainland authorities should conduct an investigation by the book and respect the rights of individual Taiwan businessmen. At the same time, we hope that SEF and ARATS can negotiate the signing of an agreement for the protection of the interests of Taiwan businessmen, because normalization of cross-strait economic relations must adhere to agreed norms. This is also the long-standing goal of the (incumbent) government.
Q. Is Mr. Chen Shih-meng’s plan to levy a "national security surcharge" on Taiwan businessmen on the Mainland in order to increase government revenue fair to those Taiwan businessmen? Does such a surcharge have any legal basis?
A. Provide service to Taiwan businessmen is one of the jobs of MAC. MAC has allocated more than tens of millions of NT dollars in our budget for such services. I personally believe that such a surcharge can be renamed the "Taiwan businessmen's service charge." This name could be more appropriate and make it easier to win support from the general public and factories. Since the government never cuts back its services to Taiwan businessmen and such services must continue, having a collection paid by Taiwan businessmen and used for them will be an appropriate arrangement.
Q. Has MAC ever done any feasibility study on the collection of either a "national security surcharge" or "Taiwan businessmen's service charge"?
A. No.
Q. It seems that what you said about a "Taiwan businessmen service charge" is not quite the same in nature with the "national security surcharge" proposed by Chen Shih-meng.
A. Mr. Chen made this suggestion in his capacity as professor. Whether that can become a part of the new government’s Mainland policy remains to be seen. I personally believe that the name "Taiwan businessmen's service charge" is more appropriate.
Q. Whatever the name of such a charge is, which government agency can issue an administrative order for this?
A. It should be from an agency in charge of financial or economic affairs. MAC may take part in the policy-making process.
Public Opinion Survey (April 21-23)
The view of Taiwan people on current cross-strait relations
Summary
- Regarding the PRC’s position to develop cross-strait relations in line with its “one country, two systems” formula, 74.3% of respondents disagree, compared to only 9.3% who agree.
- If Taiwan can enjoy better treatment than Hong Kong and Macao under the PRC’s “one country, two systems” formula, 70.7% of respondents still refuse to be ruled by the PRC, compared to 11.2% who express willingness.
- Asked to evaluate the PRC’s sincerity in having political talks with Taiwan, 55.8% respondents are suspicious, only 21.4% believe the PRC is sincere, and another 22.8% refuse to comment.
- Those in favor of the broadly defined status quo (including “state quo now and decision on reunification or independence later”, “status quo now, reunification later” “status quo now, independence later”, and “status quo indefinitely) are still the majority (82.1%). The percentage did not show significant change from previous surveys.
- Asked to predict future development in cross-strait relations, 27.2% say more relaxed, 26.4% say no change, and 21.3%, more intense. Compared with previous poll (in February 2000), the percentage showing "more relaxed" increased by 5.2 percentage points, and that for "more intense" dropped by 5.1 percentage points.
In order to understand people’s view on cross-strait relations after the presidential election, MAC entrusts the Election Center of National Chengchi University to conduct a survey. The survey is conducted from April 21 to 23, with a valid sample of 1,085 respondents in the Taiwan area, aged 20-69, interviewed by telephone. The confidence level is 95% and the sampling error is 3%.
- II. Findings
- (1) Reunification vs. independence
Those in favor of the broadly defined status quo (including “status quo now, decision on reunification or independence later,” “status quo now, reunification later,” “status quo now, independence later” and “status quo indefinitely”) are still the majority (82.1%). The percentage is not much different from previous results.
People who choose “status quo now, decision later” are the majority (30.2%) among the six opinion groups. Those who wish to see “indefinitely status quo” represent 21.1%. Pro-unification percentage (18.9%, including 2.7% “unification as soon as possible” and 18.2% “status quo now and unification later”) is about the same with the pro-independence percentage (18.5%, including 3.9% “independence as soon as possible” and 14.6% “status quo now, independence later”). Compared with previous surveys, the percentage of those choosing “status quo indefinitely” shows an upward trend since August 1999 (from 12.2% to 21.1%). The percentage for persons in favor of “status quo now and decision later” has been reducing (from 39.6% to 30.2%) since August 1999.
- (2) “One country, two systems”
Asked to comment on the PRC’s use of the “one China, two systems” formula for the development of cross-strait relations, 74.3% of those interviewed say this would be unacceptable, compared to 9.3% who support it. If Taiwan can enjoy better treatment than Hong Kong and Macao, still 70.7% say they are unwilling to be ruled by the PRC (including 42.7% strongly unwilling, and 28% unwilling.) Those who are willing represent only 11.2%.
- (3) Cross-strait negotiations
Asked to comment on the statement that "an equal footing for the two sides must be first secured in order to help the government to have talks with the Mainland," 61% of those surveyed agree. And 74.7% agree that if the two sides can have talks on an equal footing they would support the government embarking on political talks. However, 55.8% of the people do not believe that the PRC is sincere in having political talks with Taiwan (including 19.9% strongly disbelieve, and 35.9% disbelieve). Another 21.4% believe that the PRC is sincere to have such talks (including 2.4% strongly believe and 19% believe) with Taiwan. Compared with previous results, those who are suspicious of the PRC’s sincerity dropped 12.1 percentage points, and those believe the PRC is serious increase by 3.2 percentage points. Those who refuse to comment increased by 8.9% percentage points. If the ROC government wants to embark on talks, 59.8% express confidence on the government (including 30.3% strongly confident, and 29.5 slightly confident). Those who express lack of confidence in the government represent 20.6% (including 8% no confidence at all, and 14.6% not strongly confident.)
- (4) Cross-strait economic exchanges
Asked about direct transportation, 75.1% believe there should be conditional liberalization (under the principles of national security, dignity, and equality), compared to 10.1% respondents in favor of unconditional liberalization. In polls conducted since February 1987, percentage showing conditional liberalization has remained above 70%, and that for unconditional liberalization has remained always at about 10%. Asked whether they believe that liberalization of direct transportation will affect national security, 49% respondents say yes, and 33.3% say no.
Asked to comment on the government’s restrictions of Taiwan businessmen investing on the Mainland, 52.4% respondents believe those should be stricter, 22% more relaxed, and 4.6%, no change. Compared with the previous poll, percentage of those in favor for either stricter or more relaxed did not show significant change. Those in favor of no change dropped by 9.8 percentage points. Generally speaking, as evident from polls conducted since February 1997, those supporting strict government regulations have ranged between 45% to 60%, compared to 20% supporting more relaxed restrictions.
- (5) The pace of cross-strait exchanges
Asked to evaluate the government’s pace of liberalization of people-to-people exchanges between the two sides, 42% say the pace is “just right,” while 16.1% say “too slow,” and 9.9% say “too quick.” Compared to previous poll, those saying “just right” dropped by 8.9 percentage points. Those who believe “too slow” dropped by 5.8%. Those who say “no knowledge” increased dramatically (from 18.4% to 32%).
- (6) Foreign relations vs. cross-strait relations
Asked to give their priority on development foreign relations or cross-strait relations, 33,8% weigh “developing relations with other countries” higher, compared to 26.7% who prefer “developing cross-strait relations.” Those who give the same weight to both represent 22.7%. Compared with previous poll, those weighing either foreign relations or cross-strait relations higher increased by 3 or 4 percentage points respectively. Those giving the same weight to both dropped by 14.7 percentage points. Asked about their attitude if developing foreign relations caused tension in cross-strait relations, 67.6% of those surveyed still support continuing to develop foreign relations. This basically conforms to previous level.
About 69% of respondents believe Mainland authorities are unfriendly to our government (including 27.4% very unfriendly, and 41.6% unfriendly), a 9.3 percentage point drop from previous poll. Also, 49.7% of respondents consider the Mainland authorities are unfriendly to our people (including 16% very unfriendly and 33.7% unfriendly), a drop of 10 percentage points from previous poll.
- (8) Prospect for cross-strait relations
Asked to predict development in the cross-strait relations, 27.2% say it will become more relaxed, 26.4%, no change, and 21.3% more intense. Compared to previous poll, the number showing “more relaxed” cross-strait relations increased by 5.2 percentage points, and that for more intense dropped by 5.1 percentage points. If compared with two previous polls (in October 1999 and February 2000), the percentage indicating an attitude for “more relaxed” cross-strait relations increased from 19.5% to 27.2%. Those predicting the situation to be “more intense” remain in a range between 20% to 26%. Those saying “no change” dropped from 37.9% to 26.4%.