| Subjects: |
- Information warfare; Confederation model; unidentified airborne balloons; President Lee's taped address to ACU Convention.
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MAC Vice Chairman Chong-Pin Lin
at the January 21, 2000 Press Conference
His Report:
1. According to the information from the MAC Department of Hong Kong & Macao Affairs, there had been 78 major disputes in Hong Kong from July 1997 to December 1999 concerning the unchanged condition of Hong Kong as having promised by Beijing. These events were collected from press reports, without any judgemental comments by MAC. These disputes can be summarized into four categories:
- (1) Independence of the Court of Final Appeal in Hong Kong was called into question.
One incident was that on June 26, the interpretation by the PRC National People's Congress was confirmed to apply retroactively. Second, the director of immigration has the right to repatriate Mainland Chinese over-staying in Hong Kong. Third, the act of smearing the national flag or the regional flag of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) is subject to criminal prosecution.
- (2) Freedom of speech has been under tightened control.
The first case was that PRC Vice Premier Qian Qichen said that "two-states statement" cannot publicly be supported in Hong Kong, which implies likely prosecution of the freedom of expression. Second, the legal reform committee suggested the establishment of a "review committee on the press for the protection of privacy," which is aimed at disciplining the media. Third, the Director of Broadcasting and Chairman of Radio Television Hong Kong, Cheung Mun-Yee, was removed from his position due to political reasons. Also, the Court of Final Appeal ruled that smearing the national flag or the regional flag does not fall within the protection of freedom of expression.
- (3) Entries of political party representatives and ROC government officials into Hong Kong have been denied.
Chang King-yuh, national policy advisor to the president, and Hsu Hsin-liang, independent presidential candidate, were denied entry visas.
- (4) The PRC denied entries of Hong Kong democrats into the Mainland.
The home visit permit of Councilor Li Wah-Ming of Democratic Party was seized. Legislative Councilor Margaret Ng was denied entry to the Mainland.
More information will be available at the MAC website. We compile these events from press reports without giving our own interpretations. The events are self-explanatory.
Beware --- Beijing's "Psychological Warfare"
2. A book titled "Information Warfare" was published by the Beijing Military Works Publishing House in January 1999. In the sixth chapter, it clearly mentioned the information warfare, which I called "acupoint welfare." On page 365, it says, "There are many ways to engage in psychological warfare, including the use of leaflet, radio broadcasting, television programs, newspapers, journals, and war cry. Another warfare technique is the use of disinformation, i.e. blending the real with the false, or mixing the hypothetical with the substantive. Or, the substantive can be used to cover up the hypothetical, which is the No. 1 rule of psychological warfare. It might use strength to cover up weakness, the brave side to cover up the timid, the regulated to cover up the uncontrollable, the substantive to cover up the hypothetical, the intelligent to cover up the unwise, the resourceful to cover up the scarce, the near part to cover up the distant, the speedy side to cover up the slow side, the attainable to cover up the dispensable, and the other to cover another. This is the book's entire content about.
There is another book titled "Information War" published by People's Liberation Army Publishing House in November 1998. Its Chapter 9, "Psychological Warfare," says, "Psychological warfare refers to the use of specific information and media as weapons, in which strategy and propaganda constitute the key parts."
There is another book titled "On Psychological Warfare," published by the People's Publishing House in June 1997. In this book, one chapter on "information warfare" begins with "psychological warfare"
Mainland China pays great attention to this warfare. On January 6, Wen Wei Po reported that "Speculation that a reviewing stand has been constructed along the coast is purely groundless. Concerned officials: no sign for a military exercise in the near future." So where did the rumors come from? You can try to find it. Only after the press made a lot of speculations did Wen Wei Po, Beijing's mouth organ, deny them. On January 15, Ta Kung Pao reported that "Authoritative Sources: speculation that China builds aircraft carriers is nonsense." Again, where did the speculation come from? You can also try to find that. After the speculation surfaced and circulated for a while, Beijing's mouth organ media denied it as usual. On January 15, Wen Wei Po reported that the recent speculation "that there are 18 countermeasures are purely rumors. Qian Qichen did not attend Seminar of Directors of Taiwan Affairs Office." These denied reports have something in common. Mainland China uses the speculations, which it denied later, to exert pressure on the psychology of the Taiwan people.
By common sense, you will be able to understand the sources of these reports, which they denied afterward. This is a good manipulation: first, release the pressure, let it build up, and then brush it aside, which can keep the pressure within a limit. As I mentioned before, Beijing authorities have been caught between two ends -- one is the "ceiling," and the other is the "floor." The "ceiling" is the level that their pressures might explode into a situation that they do not wish to see, in their own words, meaning the pressures are so high that someone is elected or another one stays in office. The "floor" is the level that they cannot show their hands are tied. From their own logic, Beijing authorities believe that if there is no pressure, Taiwan will move to another direction. So, between the two ends -- the "ceiling" and the "floor" -- is the room for them to maneuver, not moving too high or too low. It can't be do-nothing or over-doing," i.e., there must be a manageable pressure. This is a manipulation of psychological warfare.
I just briefly describe the situation in front of us. We hope that everyone can be immune to the warfare by comprehending the background of these moves and discern the similarities of these situations. It calls for great alarm.
Questions and Answers:
Confederation model discussions remains confined to press report
Q. Is the confederation model feasible for cross-strait relations? Does it conform to the "special state-to-state relationship" introduced by President Lee Teng-hui?
A. The confederation model remains a press report. MAC has not learned the full context, so I prefer not to comment on this right now.
Q. Not to mention Vice President Lien Chan, others have called for the confederation model a long time ago. If you can consider this idea coming from a common citizen, can you comment whether it feasible for the two sides?
A. MAC has evaluated many (ideas). However, press reports said that Lien brought this up lately. Since we have not seen the entire context of it, I would not comment on that at this moment. MAC has done some research into the confederation model. However, to discuss the confederation model today will inevitably link to Mr. Lien's recent statement. Therefore, today would be an inappropriate time to talk about our internal analysis. I can share what we have with you at a more private occasion.
Q. If confederation is left out, which one of the following -- "one country, two systems," federation, or commonwealth !V is better, in your view?
A. All possible ways for unification can be studied. What we have reiterated is that Mainland China must first embark on democratization. The ROC government wishes to see there is democracy, liberty, and equal prosperity on the Mainland. Under this premise, we can advance toward a new China. The ways to achieve that can be discussed and should be decided through negotiations and talks.
Q. Mainland China has said that either federation or confederation is unacceptable. Given such an attitude, do you still consider there is room for talks in the future?
A. Mainland China is a large country. There is a large population, so there are a variety of opinions, and a lot of books. We know that some thinktanks in a big coastal city have studied these issues. But, those in another inland big city seem to have different opinions. If we continue, we can find different opinions on and on.
In conclusion, first, we are not clear about the entire context of Mr. Lien's statement. Second, different people on the Mainland could develop different views. We hope that Mainland authorities can study different ways, and not be as dogmatic as a steel plate.
Mainland's airborne balloons: information unclear
Q. Mainland China released unidentified airborne balloons to Taiwan the other day. Allegedly, these balloons contain metal. What is your view on this?
A. My knowledge about this matter is no more than yours. The Ministry of National Defense (MOND) had informed MAC before it made the news release. Other details are unknown: Were they actually released by the Mainland side? How were they released? Whether those captured on the ground are all of the released? Do they actually contain metal? We have no further information. Therefore, MAC cannot make further comment.
Q. You just mentioned that Min Pao, Wen Wei Po, Ta Kong Pao, and other mouth organs of the PRC had denied speculations. However, the United Daily News was the first to report the "18 countermeasures," which was denied later. Based upon your information, did Qian actually take part in the Seminar for Directors of Taiwan Affairs Office? Did he actually mention the "18 countermeasures?"
A. I have no further information to verify whether Qian actually took part in the meeting. But, these situations (involving disinformation) have something in common.
Lee's taped speech: democracy is what Taiwan most proud of
Q. President Lee delivered a taped speech at a U.S. Republican Party convention today. He criticized Mainland China's situations and clarified the ROC government's positions. Will his statement be considered provocative? What is the government's assessment of the effect? Will the government use this way more often to expand Taiwan's presence in the world?
A. In his speech, the president made a lot of wishes for future development of the U.S.-ROC relations. He also criticized the PRC's crackdown on democratic movement, religious activities, and human rights. MAC wants to urge that the PRC should be more lenient toward its people, more open to democratization on the whole Mainland, and more serious about the protection of human rights. Only by doing so can unification for China arrive early and peace and stability for the Asia-Pacific region be safeguarded. As the global trend evidenced from the last decade, the wave of democratization beginning in 1988 and 1989 is irresistible, notably, the tide for freedom of religion.
Q. Many disputes happened in Hong Kong during the post-1999 period. For the past month since Macao was returned to Mainland China, has MAC noticed any internal change in Macao? MAC said it wished that Macao could play an important intermediary role for cross-strait relations. But, Macao is planning to change regulations for Taiwan visitors. Will the Taiwan-Macao relations develop as smoothly as MAC wished before?
A. We are watching closely the development. But, the post-revision period (in Macao) is too short to make a conclusion. We have not enough information to make an assessment.
Q. What is the background that President Lee could make a taped address at the American Conservative Union (ACU) convention? Who acted as a go-between to settle the arrangements? What is your judgement about the effect of the way Lee gave his address on upgrading Taiwan's international status?
A. The first part of your question, I am afraid, should be answered by the spokesman of the Presidential Office. As to the second part, we believe that the president's statement will contribute to Taiwan's international status, the democratization in the world, and religious freedom. Democracy is what Taiwan is most proud of.
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