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Analysis on Hong Kong Media Reports of Military Threat from Mainland China (Jan 2000)

Analysis on Hong Kong Media Reports of

ilitary Threat?from Mainland China
 

●Hong Kong media reports of probable military invasion of Taiwan by Mainland China have exceeded 124 articles and 193 pieces of news

●Hong Kong media reports of mainland military actions have never been confirmed by the Beijing authorities
 

A. Background

On July 9, 1999 when President Lee Teng-hui was interviewed by the Voice of Germany on the issue of relations between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, President Lee positioned the status as pecial state to state?relations. However, the Beijing authority has shortened the statement to wo states.? Apart from seeking international support for its ne China principle,?the People Republic of China (PRC) further launched a massive campaign among its media to criticize President Lee. During this period, news media in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region had reported in large volume the military activities on the Mainland. In particular, Wen Wei Po and Ta Kung Pao, generally believed the mouthpiece of the Chinese Mainland in Hong Kong, had reported the provocative news of ar across the Taiwan Strait to break up any time soon?in a prominent space. Other media in Hong Kong also followed suit to report one after another unconfirmed news that Mainland China was about to launch military attack on Taiwan. Despite the fact that the news did not translate into action, the reports, a seemingly intentional psychological warfare transmitted by Taiwanese media, had nonetheless affected the morale of Taiwan residents and our stock market. The behavior of some Hong Kong media had aroused the attention of international media and the self-reflection of local media in Hong Kong.

B. Categories of reports of ilitary threat?

The preliminary estimate by the Mainland Affairs Council concludes that the content of the 124 articles and 193 pieces of news (one report contains several pieces of news) reported from July 11 to August 27, could be classified into six categories:

●PRC succeeded in developing new weapon model and new military branch began in service (31 pieces);

●PRC comments on and deduce military attack on Taiwan (23 pieces);

●PRC against he two states?statement and refuse to renounce the use of force (39 pieces);

●News of military exercise in Mainland China (24 pieces);

●News of combat readiness in military zones on the Mainland (10 pieces)

●Comments on the military power and military condition of both sides of the Taiwan Strait (66 pieces)

By volume, Wen Wei Po took the lead with 58 pieces of reports, followed by Min Pao, 25 pieces, Ta Kung Pao, 18 pieces and Hong Kong Commercial Daily, 17 pieces. By contents, Ta Kung Pao and Hong Kong Commercial Daily had the most reports on ecision by the military to use force?while the rest tended to brief readers with the comparison of military might and condition between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. What is worth noting is that most media reports on the military condition had headlined the imminent danger in the Taiwan Strait. For example ujian mobilized for military exercises?(Wen Wei Po, July 17, 1999), eople Liberation Army is ready for action?(Min Pao, July 27, 1999), aval exercise in Xiamen?(Wen Wei Po, July 27, 1999), ujian enters Stage II combat readiness?(Sing Tao Daily, Aug. 2, 1999), ar is not ruled out in the Taiwan Strait?(Wen Wei Po, Aug. 4, 1999), robable conflict may take place between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait?(Wen Wei Po, Aug. 9, 1999), hinese submarines converges in the Taiwan Strait ready for action?(Wen Wei Po, Aug. 9, 1999), onflict between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait is likely to occur?(Oriental Daily News, Aug. 13, 1999), rovisions stored in Fujian for war?(Apple Daily, Aug. 13, 1999). Mainland China to launch military attack on Taiwan at the end of the month?(Sing Tao Daily, Aug. 24, 1999).

C. Questions and self-reflection in media

News reports of probable military action against Taiwan from Mainland China mostly came from Xinhua News Agency, China News Services, rumors have it that, it has been reported, sources, and personnel in military service (for details, see Appendix II) whose reliability is hard to verify. For instance, The Hong Kong Commercial Daily reported in its Aug. 28 edition that Mainland China had successfully developed a new long-range rocket capable of firing 360 kilometers (covering all points of Taiwan if fired from Fujian launching pad). The news appeared in the internet on Aug. 29, only to be denied by an individual who claimed to have made up the story and urged the general public not to be fooled. These unconfirmed reports had not only aroused the attention from international media, but also triggered local media to launch a self-reflection movement. Far Eastern Economic Review pointed out news from Wen Wei Po was often considered octored news?from higher authorities due to its close relations with Mainland authority. However, the massive reports of probable military conflict in the Taiwan Strait during the period made readers wonder whether it was news report or propaganda gimmicks to promote sales of newspapers (Far Eastern Economic Review, Page 28, Aug. 26, 1999). At the same time, Hong Kong Economic Journal pointed out in its editorial that ews media of Hong Kong have played a very strange role in the dispute of wo states?statement. Especially the massive reports on military exercises by the People Liberation Army, movement of the military, and strategic deployment to attack Taiwan are difficult to verify and, moreover, have caused panics in the marketplace. Objectively, these reports were part of the ivil attack and military threat?strategy of the Mainland and, in fact, they have formed a stream of power in the propaganda war against Taiwan. After the battle, the neutral stand of Hong Kong media has been greatly tarnished while in the communication channel between the two sides of the Strait, the function of Hong Kong has been greatly reduced (Hong Kong Economic Journal, Aug. 11, 1999).

D. Conclusions

●Information collected by this Council indicates the propaganda pressure toward Taiwan from Mainland China apparently has been organized, hoping to disturb the morale of Taiwan residents and confuse international opinion through nervous warfare and psychological warfare. Some comments have even tried to criticize the pecial state-to-state?relations from juridical point of view. In this respect, we must be prepared for a counter measure.

●During the period when Mainland China launched its ivil attack and military threat?campaign against Taiwan, the majority of Hong Kong media have quoted on a large scale unconfirmed reports of military movements. Nevertheless, few have conducted self-discipline action to reflect what they have done. It is hoped that in future reports concerning the relations between the two sides of the Strait, more facts are provided so that unnecessary guess-work can be avoided and peaceful unification can be smoothly achieved.

Appendix I Analysis of Contents Reported in Hong Kong Media on ilitary Threat?Against Taiwan from Mainland China

Serial No. Media Determination to take mili-tary action by the military Military exercise New weapon; New military branch Tactics employed to attack Taiwan Number of military districts that are ready for combat readiness Compari-son of military strength and condition between the two sides of the Strait Total
1 Wen Wei Po 12 10 10 5   21 58
2 Min Pao 2 4 5 3 2 9 25
3 Ta Kung Pao 9 2 2   2 3 18
4 Hong Kong Commercial Daily 6 3 2   1 5 17
5 Apply Daily 2 1 4   2 6 15
6 Sing Tao Daily 1 1 3 2 2 6 15
7 Express News 3     5    5 13
8 Oriental Daily News 3 2 1 3   4 13
9 Hong Kong Economic Daily 1   2 12   4 9
10 Sun Daily   1 1 1 1 2 6
11 Tin Tin Daily News     1 2   1 4
Total   39 24 31 23 10 66 193

Appendix II List of News Reported in Hong Kong Media of ilitary Threat?Against Taiwan from Mainland China

No. Date Headline Media Appeared as By Source
1 July 11 China First Stealth Battleship began service Wen Wei Po News report   Guangzhou Daily
2 July 16 A neutron bomb dropped in the international diplomatic arena Hong Kong Economic Daily Editorial    
3 July 16 China held neutron bomb technology for a long time Wen Wei Po News report   Report from the Information Office of the State Council
4 July 15 Military: Watch closely Taiwan movement Wen Wei Po News report   Xinhua News Agency quoting comments from the PLA Daily
5 July 15 Beijing: Action shall be used to counterattack separation movement Wen Wei Po Special to Wen Wei Po Zeng Shuwan Combined news from agencies service
6 July 15 General Chi Haotian seriously warned Taiwan independent elements Hong Kong Economic Journal News report   Xinhua News Agency
7 July 17 Wartime mobilization exercise seen in Fujian frontline Wen Wei Po News report   Dispatch from reporter of Wen Wei Po
8 July 20 If Lee Teng-hui does not choose peace Ta Kung Pao Special Feature Commentator Yi Nan  
9 July 21 Inquiry into tactics employed to attack Taiwan as discussed in Fujian media Wen Wei Po News report   Dispatch from reporter of Wen Wei Po
10 July 21 Special service troops exercise in Nanjing Military District Sing Tao Daily News report   Chinese Youth Daily
11 July 21 PLA would never allow success of separatists Wen Wei Po News report   Spokesman of Mainland China Ministry of Foreign Affairs
12 July 21 Special service troops in exercise on Mainland China Min Pao News report   Chinese Youth Daily
13 July 22 ownsizing project?will serve no purpose of Taiwan independence Ta Kung Pao News report   PLA Daily
14 July 22 A million army would not see separation succeeded Wen Wei Po News report   PLA Daily
15 July 23 China paratroopers in exercise with new equipment Wen Wei Po News report   Xinhua News Agency
16 July 26 Military Daily: Tactics to attack Taiwan: military action, embargo and beach-landing Wen Wei Po News report   China National Defense Daily
17 July 26 Tactics to attack Taiwan: military action, embargo and beach-landing Oriental Daily News News report   China National Defense Daily
18 July 26 Three strategies to attack Taiwan Min Pao News report   China National Defense Daily
19 July 27 PLA is ready any time Min Pao News report   Contents of interview with foreign guests by Gens. Chi Haotian and Fu Quanyu
20 July 27 Naval reserve force of Xiamen in exercise today Wen Wei Po News report   Dispatch from reporter of Wen Wei Po
21 July 27 PLA capable of checking Taiwan independence movement Hong Kong Commercial Daily Commentary Commentator Feng Deng  
22 July 27 China would not tolerate Taiwan independence Ta Kung Pao News report   Quote from Gen. Chi Haotian in conversation with foreign guest
23 July 23 Mainland China developed new anti-carrier guided missile Sing Tao Daily News report    
24 July 27 New model land-to-air missile is 100% error-free Wen Wei Po News report   Xinhua News Agency
25 July 27 Ocean navigational capability of Chinese Navy improved Wen Wei Po News report   Xinhua News Agency
26 July 28 Naval reserve force of Xiamen in exercise today Hong Kong Commercial Daily News report   China News Services
27 July 28 Cao Gangchuan (Military Commissioner): Military hardware must be well set up Hong Kong Commercial Daily News report    
28 July 28 Taiwan military force is no match Hong Kong Commercial Daily Commentary Commentator Zuo Qi  
29 July 28 Gen Fu Quanyu warned Pres. Lee Teng-hui to stop activities on separation Ta Kung Pao News report   Quote from Gen. Fu Quanyu in conversation with foreign guest
30 July 28 Thought of annihilating China by anti-Chinese forces remains alive Wen Wei Po News repot   Xinhua News Agency
31 July 30 PLA to undergo three exercises before National Day; sea exercise aims at 2nd generation battleships of Taiwan Apple Daily News report   Southern Daily
32 Aug. 1 Gen. Chi Haotian warned Pres. Lee Teng-hui not to underestimate the determination of anti-separation force Ta Kung Pao News report   Xinhua News Agency
33 Aug. 2 PLA reiterated its determination against separation force Wen Wei Po Editorial    
34 Aug. 2 PLA is capable of smashing Taiwan independence force Wen Wei Po Editorial Xing Taifu PLA Daily, Chinese National Defense Daily
35 Aug.2 Military forces in Mainland China accused President Lee Teng-hui of playing with fire Oriental Daily News News report   PLA Daily
36 Aug. 2 Military press warns war is not far away Sing Tao Daily News report   PLA Daily
37 Aug. 2 Military press: To win is the only way Min Pao News report   PLA Daily
38 Aug. 2 If Taiwan declares independent, we would launch an attack Ta Kung Pao Special to Ta Kung Pao Ma Ling From an interview with deputy department head of Department of Strategy, PLA Institute of Military Science, senior research fellow and researchers
39 Aug. 2 Fujian enters Stage II combat readiness Sing Tao Daily News report   Sources in Beijing
40 Aug. 2 Beijing punctuated six death spots of Taiwan independence movement Sing Tao Daily News report   Written article from National Defense Ministry of Mainland China
41 Aug.2 Military press editorial: President Lee Teng-hui plays with fire Apple Daily News report   PLA Daily
42 Aug. 3 China launched new guided missile; Taiwan under its range Apple Daily News report   Xinhua News Agency
43 Aug. 3 For whom did China fire its new guided missile? Hong Kong Economic Daily Editorial    
44 Aug. 3 When Taiwan announces constitutional amendment to declare independent, it is time Mainland China will launch the attack News report     Ta Kung Pao
45 Aug. 3 China fired its intercontinental ballistic missile, but for whom? Tin Tin Daily News Editorial    
46 Aug. 3 Forces in Fujian enters Stage III combat readiness Ta Kung Pao     Military sources, exclusive news, observation by reporter
47 Aug.3 To kill two birds with one stone: Warning the USA and bullying Taiwan Sing Tao Daily Special to Sing Tao Daily The paper reporter  
48 Aug. 3 China has successfully launched its long-range missile Wen Wei Po News report   Xinhua News Agency
49 Aug. 3 China successfully fired its Eastwind 31 Model missile Min Pao News report   Xinhua News Agency
50 Aug. 4 Chinese tanks are capable of beach landing in amphibian war  Ta Kung Pao News report   From the paper own news bureau
51 Aug. 4 Experts: War in Taiwan Strait is not ruled out Wen Wei Po Special to Wen Wei Po    
52 Aug. 4 PLA is determined to smash separation movement Hong Kong Commercial Daily Editorial Zhang Qing Chinese National Defense Daily
53 Aug. 4 China main battle tanks are capable of beach landing Hong Kong Commercial Daily News report   Xinhua News Agency
54 Aug. 4 China starts training of tank beach landing Wen Wei Po News report   Xinhua News Agency
55 Aug. 4 Frequent sorties of fighters seen on both sides of the Taiwan Strait Wen Wei Po News report   Washington Post
56 Aug. 4 Exports pointed out long-range missile is free from interception Apple Daily News report   U.S. military sources, Wen Wei Po
57 Aug. 4 PLA tanks in submerging exercise Apple Daily News report   Xinhua News Agency
58 Aug. 4 US worries probable dogfight between the two air forces across the Taiwan Strait Apple Daily News report   Washington Post
59 Aug. 4 Mainland China developed ubmerging tank?/font> Sing Tao Daily News report   From news agencies
60 Aug. 4 Fighters confronted at the Strait median line Sing Tao Daily News report   Sources were varied.
61 Aug. 4 PLA tanks were in submerging exercise Min Pao News report   PLA Daily
62 Aug. 4 Fighters from both sides of the Taiwan Strait confronted Min Pao News report   Washington Post
63 Aug. 5 Troops converge in Xiamen Min Pao News report   From local residents
64 Aug. 5 Military reiterates its determination to eradicate Taiwan independence movement Hong Kong Economic Journal Commentary Kuang Xin PLA Daily, Xinhua News Agency, military sources in Beijing
65 Aug. 6 PLA is ready to separatists Wen Wei Po Special to Wen Wei Po Xu Zhonghe  
66 Aug. 6 PLA expedites its deployment for attack on Taiwan Hong Kong Economic Journal Commentary Ren Huiwen Informed sources, military strategist in Beijing
67 Aug. 6 Military Commissioner: In case of conflict, we should strike first to take the initiative Min Pao News report   Informed sources
68 Aug. 6 Sorties of military fighters increased on Mainland China Wen Wei Po News report   United Press International
69 Aug. 6 Chinese Navy develops sea embargo capacity Wen Wei Po News report   China News Services
70 Aug. 6 Troops in Fujian enter Stage III combat readiness Hong Kong Commercial Daily News report   China News Services
71 Aug. 7 China purchased 60 Su-30 fighters Apple Daily News report   Russian Commerce Daily
72 Aug. 7 Experts: efrain from first using nuclear weapon against Taiwan may not be applicable?/font> Min Pao News report   Interview with Pinkev
73 Aug. 9 The two sides of the Taiwan Strait may engage in conflict; a PLA major general stressed Taiwan should not be lost as a result Wen Wei Po News report   Lianhe Zaobao of Singapore, interview with Maj. Gen. Pan Zhenjiang of Institute of Strategy Study, Chinese War College
74 Aug. 9 Members of armed forces rebuked Pres. Lee Teng-hui wo states?statement Hong Kong Commercial Daily News report   PLA Daily
75 Aug. 9 Artillery Division in Guangzhou Military District moves to digital Wen Wei Po News report   From the paper own news bureau
76 Aug. 9 Naval force combat capability improved Wen Wei Po News report   From the paper own news bureau
77 Aug. 9 Military mock exercise to block the Taiwan Strait at end of month The Sun Daily Special to the Sun Daily Cao Guozhong Informed sources, other sources
78 Aug. 9 Nanjing and Guangzhou Military Districts in Stage I combat readiness The Sun Daily Special to the Sun Daily Wen Ren Informed sources in Beijing
79 Aug. 9 Chinese submarines converged in the Taiwan Strait ready for action Wen Wei Po Special to Wen Wei Po Ceng Shuwan Informed sources
80 Aug. 9 China to win the Taiwan Strait war at swift speed Hong Kong Economic Journal Commentary Leng Haijian  
81 Aug. 9 PLA in bitter exercise for amphibian warfare Wen Wei Po News report   PLA Daily
82 Aug. 10 Chinese submarines converged in the Taiwan Strait ready for action Sing Tao Daily News report   Military sources
83 Aug. 10 Five targets that the Chinese army would strike against Hong Kong Economic Journal Commentary Leng haijian  
84 Aug. 10 PLA formed its electronic unit Oriental Daily News News report   Xinhua News Agency, Central TV Station
85 Aug. 11 Peace on the economic front; but critical on the military front Hong Kong Economic Daily Special to Hong Kong Economic Daily Huang Yanglie  
86 Aug. 11 Beijing News: Taiwan issue should be solved as early as possible Wen Wei Po News report   Xinhua News Agency, Central TV Station
87 Aug. 12 Military attack on Taiwan must be well prepared Hong Kong Economic Journal Commentary Leng Haijian  
88 Aug. 12 Mainland China media boast Taiwan can be taken in five days Oriental Daily News News report   China Commercial Times Weekly of Mainland China
89 Aug. 12 Strategist Taiwan issue concerns the future of China: Wen Wei Po News report   Xinhua News Agency
90 Aug. 12 From the viewpoint of military strategist on Taiwan issue Hong Kong Commercial Daily News report   Xinhua News Agency
91 Aug. 12 Frequent combat training spotted along southeast coast Ta Kung Pao Special to Ta Kung Pao Shao Peng An interview
92 Aug. 13 China would not retreat because of US intervention Wen Wei Po Special to Wen Wei Po Ceng Shuwan Interview with researcher Yan Zhao of Institute of Military Science
93 Aug. 13 All major Taiwan targets within grips of PLA Wen Wei Po Special to Wen Wei Po Ceng Shuwan Interview with researcher Yan Zhao of Institute of Military Science
94 Aug. 13 Beijing Daily said military confrontation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait could break up any time Oriental Daily News News report   Global Times
95 Aug. 13 Official news pointed out that Fujian is storing ration for combat Apple Daily News report   Global Times, PLA Daily
96 Aug. 14 The Central Military Commission studies all feasible scenarios of attacking Taiwan Min Pao News report   Informed sources
97 Aug. 17 PLA vows to crash separatist groups Ta Kung Pao News report   News from Beijing
98 Aug. 17 PLA pays close attention to development of the two sides of the Taiwan Strait Wen Wei Po News report   Xinhua News Agency
99 Aug. 18 Military press: Taiwan military strength is no match Wen Wei Po News report   PLA Daily
100 Aug. 18 Beijing believes time not ready for military action Min Pao Special to Min Pao Staff reporter Military sources in Beijing
101 Aug. 19 Lanzhou Military District staged exercise Ta Kung Pao News report   PLA Daily
102 Aug. 19 North Sea Squadron of Coast Guard Command, China organized Hong Kong Commercial Daily News report   China News Services
103 Aug. 19 Chief of General Staff inspects military exercise in Lanzhou Military District Min Pao News report   PLA Daily
104 Aug. 19 Taiwan issue incorporated in overall strategic deployment plan Oriental Daily News News report   Military expert in Beijing
105 Aug. 19 Exercise of joint operation held in Lanzhou Military District Oriental Daily News News report   PLA Daily
106 Aug. 20 Beijing Daily: To attack Taiwan any time soon; not military threat Oriental Daily News News report   Global Times, PLA Daily, China Business and Industry Times
107 Aug. 20 National Day parade has special meaning in view of current development of events across the Taiwan Strait Hong Kong Economic Journal Commentary Chen Kai  
108 Aug. 20 New Beijing guidelines toward Taiwan: To maintain peace with the might of military force; to tame independence movement with use of force when necessary Sing Tao Daily News report   High-level advisors in Beijing
109 Aug. 20 Media analysis points joint land, air and sea operation a desirable means in case of conflict Tin Tin Daily News News report   China Business and Industry Times of China
110 Aug. 20 China built simulated guided missile site The Sun Daily News report   Informed sources
111 Aug. 21 Gen. Fu Quanyu: Strengthen military preparation for war Wen Wei Po News report   Xinhua News Agency, China News Services
112 Aug. 21 To break up Lee Teng-hui three dreams Wen Wei Po Commentary Prof. Zhang Zhaozhong of National War College  
113 Aug. 23 Combat troops in naval operation training for better capability in attack-Taiwan confrontation Min Pao News report   Informed sources from the military
114 Aug. 23 To protect Taiwan with agile and diversified military force  Wen Wei Po Commentary Guo Ping  
115 Aug. 24 Will Taiwan military forces be able to withstand PLA? Hong Kong Economic Daily Yuan Chishan    
116 Aug. 24 Rumors that Mainland China is to punish Taiwan militarily at the end of the month Sing Tao Daily News report   Information from Beijing
117 Aug. 25 Taiwan experts: Factor of use of force has apparently increased Wen Wei Po News report   China News Services
118 Aug. 25 Hong Kong residents underestimate risk of military confrontation between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait Sing Tao Daily News report   Combined from news services
119 Aug. 25 To win without fight when strength must be shown Sing Tao Daily News report   China Commentary
120 Aug. 26 Guided missile expert denounced wo states?statement Ta Kung Pao News report   From the newspaper own news bureau
121 Aug. 27 Mainland communists authorities talked deployment of military attack on Taiwan Hong Kong Economic Journal Commentary Ren Huiwen  
122 Aug. 27 Beijing experts believed Taiwan was not capable of making nuclear weapon Min Pao News report   Life Times of Mainland China
123 Aug 27 Combat capacity of guided missile troops made remarkable progress Hong Kong Commercial Daily News report   PLA Daily
124 Aug. 27 A strategic decision making that spans over the next millennium Ta Kung Pao Special to Ta Kung Pao Huang Caohuang  

[Sources:11 dailies published in Hong Kong (not all of them), including Wen Wei Po, Ta Kung Pao, Hong Kong Commercial Daily, Min Pao, Sing Tao Daily, Apple Daily, Hong Kong Economic Daily, Oriental Daily News, The Sun Daily, Hong Kong Economic Journal, Tin Tin Daily News.